The reversal of the 2015 one-tier mining tax regime is projected to create a revenue shortfall of about ZMW2.3 billion in the 2015 budget. That is equivalent to the budget for servicing interest payments on the country’s external debt. The economists at the Treasury must be busy right now reworking the numbers to balance the budget – not an easy feat. One thing is for sure – the much-dreaded fiscal deficit is likely to go up, not down. So we can, for now, forget about meeting the medium term fiscal deficit target of 3.2% in 2017 as espoused in the 2015-2017 Green Paper. To contain the deficit, the buzzwords will be fiscal consolidation – a policy aimed at reducing fiscal deficits and debt accumulation. That means increasing revenue while at the same time cutting down on non-priority expenses. Are we going to see new tax and non-tax raising measures half way into the year? Are we going to see major cuts in the budget? Or are we going to throw fiscal consolidation through the window and go back to the international capital market to get another Eurobond? The likely answer may be a blend of all these measures.

If it is any consolation, the price of copper on the international market has been on the up since February, from around US$5400 per tonne to about US$6,400 presently. With mining houses now much more relaxed about the tax regime following government’s going back to a two-tier mining tax system, mining operations are likely to normalise. We may see a rebound in mining output, which was the weakest link in the 2014 GDP.

Good reasonably priced rental apartments in Lusaka can be hard to find, especially if you are new in town and do not have many contacts. Only the most expensive properties are being advertised online. The ones that are more affordable you find out about by hearing from people or reading the newspaper advertisements, which generally also tend to list only the higher priced establishments.

Clearly, we do not expect any budget cuts to health, education, agriculture, water supply and sanitation, infrastructure spending and other poverty reduction programmes as these constitute part of the priority sectors. The complement of this is therefore non-priority spending. We expect, among other things, that public sector workers will have to learn to do their work within the confines of their offices, not workshops! And this is the best time to strengthen the implementation of e-governance systems which can cut down on unnecessary expenditure.

We anxiously, and impatiently, await the Minister of Finance’s address to Parliament on how he is going to balance the budget. In the meantime, we keep our fingers crossed.